Strengthened follow-up and evaluation of the Swedish Programme of Measures for the marine environment

Numerous management measures are being taken in Sweden to address marine environmental problems. As part of adaptive management, it is essential to evaluate the effects of these measures so that they can be optimised and adjusted if necessary. This report presents the results and recommendations from a project aimed at strengthening the follow-up and evaluation of the Swedish Programme of Measures for the marine environment (PoM) established under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

The aim of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and the corresponding Swedish Marine Environment Ordinance, is to achieve a good environmental status in the marine environment. The Swedish Programme of Measures established to meet this objective primarily includes measures in the coastal and marine area. Concurrently, several other efforts are being made to reduce the negative impacts on the marine environment, including measures aimed at land-based activities. With multiple efforts running in parallel, it becomes challenging to attribute any changes in environmental status to individual measures or programmes. In this report a model is proposed for evaluating the effects of measures in the PoM, with the following recommendations in brief:

Apply an evaluation model that considers individual measures and that starts with the activities carried out within the administration to initiate the measure. It is proposed that the evaluation of measures follows an effect chain that considers the expected output of the administration’s activities, administrative effects, behavioural changes amongst actors outside the administration, and environmental effects. The proposed framework for follow-up and evaluation provides for a systematic and coherent evaluation of measures, which is expected to lead to a more cost-effective implementation of measures overall. 

Evaluate early steps in the effect chain to identify potential deviations from expected changes or undesirable side effects as early as possible. Regarding environmental effects, it is often difficult to assess the effects of individual measures in the PoM. In most cases, dedicated monitoring programmes are required to assess the environmental effects and in many cases it takes a long time before measures result in detectable changes in the environment. Therefore, it is often appropriate to evaluate earlier steps in the effect chain to identify possible needs to adjust the measure. 

Consider how the measures will be evaluated when they are initially decided upon, to identify the data and types of methods that may be appropriate for future evaluations. The evaluation of measures often requires the collection of new data and information to meet the specific purpose of the evaluation. For some types of evaluations, it is also necessary to collect relevant data and information before measures are implemented. Thus, it is important to consider how measures will be evaluated already in the decision-making stage.